Economícas

Rumores de Devaluación en Venezuela

Hace exactamente un año escribí en esta columna un artículo en el que explicaba por qué había que devaluar el bolívar, entendiendo por devaluación la modificación del tipo de cambio oficial, que en aquel momento estaba en 4,30 bolívares por dólar. A las pocas semanas, el 6 de febrero de 2013, se hizo el anuncio de esa devaluación, y se elevó esa tasa preferencial a 6,30 bolívares, la cual ha estado vigente desde entonces. Han surgido ahora fuertes rumores acerca de la inminencia de una nueva devaluación, rumores que creo están bien fundamentados, pues sobran razones para que se haga un ajuste cambiario de ese tipo, razones que exponía en mi artículo de diciembre de 2012 y que hoy vuelven a estar plenamente vigentes.

Explicaba allí que al fijarse el tipo de cambio por un período prolongado a pesar de existir una inflación interna muy superior a la que padecen los países a los que les compramos lo que importamos, la moneda se aprecia en forma acentuada, y se agrava el problema de sobrevaluación; esto estimula las compras foráneas y reduce la capacidad competitiva del aparato productivo local. Adicionalmente, al no variar el tipo de cambio en un ambiente inflacionario desenfrenado, como el que hemos vivido en el presente año, las divisas preferenciales se hacen particularmente apetecibles, ya que hoy lo más barato que se puede comprar en Venezuela después de un litro de gasolina es un dólar a 6,30 bolívares, no solo porque lo que se puede adquirir localmente con esa cantidad de bolívares es muy inferior a lo que se puede comprar con un dólar en el resto del mundo, sino también porque el precio de ese dólar en el mercado paralelo es mucho mayor que el tipo de cambio preferencial. Esa apetencia se traduce en una demanda desbocada de moneda extranjera al precio oficial, máxime cuando abundan los bolívares a raíz del dislocado gasto público y del financiamiento irrestricto por parte del BCV de buena parte de esas erogaciones, y las tasas de interés se encuentran en niveles artificialmente bajos y son muy inferiores a la tasa esperada de inflación. Esta apetencia por los dólares preferenciales genera corrupción y una restricción cada vez mayor por parte de las autoridades en su asignación y distribución, lo que contribuye a limitaciones de producción debido a la imposibilidad para importar insumos, al desabastecimiento de productos y a la presión alcista de los precios.

El ajuste del tipo de cambio preferencial contribuiría a corregir estos desbalances, o a mitigarlos, ya que el encarecimiento de la divisa tendería a hacerla menos apetecible, reduciría la sobrevaluación de la moneda, tendería a racionalizar las compras de productos y servicios en el exterior, y contribuiría a reducir el enorme desbalance de las finanzas públicas, ya que la venta de los dólares de Pdvsa al BCV le generaría una mayor cantidad de bolívares, disminuiría así su necesidad de buscar financiamiento en el instituto emisor, y aumentaría sus contribuciones tributarias al fisco.

No obstante, esa devaluación generaría presiones inflacionarias, pues encarecería los productos foráneos, razón que lleva a algunas personas a rechazar o a criticar una medida de ese tipo. Sin embargo, si se desea tener una auténtica y sostenible estabilidad del tipo de cambio nominal es necesario que estén presentes en la economía una serie de condiciones, siendo una de ellas el mantenimiento de una inflación baja y equivalente a la de los países que nos proveen los productos que importamos. En otras palabras, si queremos un tipo de cambio estable se tiene que abatir la inflación de forma permanente, para lo cual hay que aplicar políticas monetarias y fiscales racionales, y crear las condiciones para que florezcan las inversiones reproductivas que permitan incrementar y diversificar la producción de bienes y servicios, y hacer más eficientes y productivas las unidades de producción.

Via: http://www.el-nacional.com/opinion/Rumores-devaluacion_0_317968280.html

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